Vanguard economic and market update

24 February 2021 | Markets and Economy


  Vanguard economic and market update

Key points:

  • The strength of the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic continues to depend largely on health outcomes and the pace of vaccination rollout programmes.
  • US GDP growth estimates could be raised for 2021, depending on the size, timing and composition of a fiscal support package. 
  • The euro area is expected to slip into a “double-dip” recession1 in the first quarter, although the UK looks to have avoided one after surprisingly strong growth at the end of 2020. 
  • Growth in China, the first major economy to reach its pre-pandemic trend, could be below potential in the first quarter due to regional lockdowns and travel restrictions.
Defined as a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) followed by a short-lived recovery and then another recession




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© 2021 Vanguard Group (Ireland) Limited. All rights reserved.

© 2021 Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH. All rights reserved.